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Who we are

The Early Warning Research and Analysis Centre (EWRAC) is a specialised centre of ISRA, the Institute for Strategic Research and Analysis, an independent, non-governmental and not-for-profit institute. We provide early warning and strategic analysis on Southern and East Africa, and work with states, regional bodies, partners and communities to turn that warning into solutions.

Our mission

To complement and assist states, regional bodies and communities in Southern and East Africa by identifying the gaps that terrorism and organised crime exploit, and by helping to close them through early warning, practical solutions and stronger cooperation.

Our vision

Resilient communities and capable states across Southern and East Africa, working together to see threats early and stop them before they become crises.

Our principles

We follow the core principles that guide humanitarian, peacebuilding and early-warning work across the African Union, the United Nations and their partners.

Neutrality

We take no side in political, ethnic, religious or armed disputes. Our only concern is the safety of people and the stability of the region.

Impartiality

We report every threat on the evidence, whoever the actor and wherever it happens.

Independence

Our analysis is free from political, commercial or donor influence.

Complementarity

We support and strengthen states and regional bodies; we do not replace them.

Community first

The people most exposed to violence are at the centre of our work, and local knowledge shapes our solutions.

Do no harm

We weigh the effect of everything we publish and do on communities, sources and partners.

Evidence and rigour

Every judgement is verified, sourced and carries a stated level of confidence.

Confidentiality

We protect sources, partners and sensitive information at all times.

Portrait of Leonardo Vitangui

Message from the Senior Analyst, Peace & Security

Acting together, before it is too late

Africa has become the global epicentre of terrorism. Six of the ten countries most affected by terrorism are in sub-Saharan Africa. In Southern Africa, Islamic State affiliates are entrenched in northern Mozambique and eastern DRC, while in East Africa al-Shabaab remains a major threat despite years of sustained counter-terrorism pressure.

No country can defeat terrorism alone, and no border can contain it. Terrorist networks exploit porous borders, remote territories, weak state presence and gaps in regional cooperation to move fighters, weapons, money and propaganda from one jurisdiction to the next.

They do not respect sovereignty. They infiltrate communities, intimidate local populations, disrupt economic corridors, undermine public institutions and erode citizens’ trust in the State. They exploit poverty, marginalisation, grievances and governance gaps to recruit and radicalise the vulnerable, including children and women, and they manipulate community, religious and traditional leaders to lend themselves legitimacy.

The cost goes far beyond security. Livelihoods are destroyed, populations are displaced, investment retreats and the development corridors on which our region’s future depends are placed at risk. Where the State cannot protect its citizens, terrorists step forward as an alternative authority.

Our response must therefore be equally regional, coordinated and decisive. Intelligence-sharing, secure borders, the disruption of terrorist financing, community engagement and prevention must reinforce one another. Military pressure alone cannot defeat a threat that is sustained by recruitment, financing, propaganda and local vulnerability.

The question is no longer whether terrorism threatens our collective security. It is whether we will act together, with the urgency and resolve it demands, before it undermines our sovereignty, our stability and our shared development.

Leonardo VitanguiSenior Analyst, Peace & Security, EWRAC

Source for the ranking: Institute for Economics & Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2026.

Our structure

One institute, one specialised centre

ISRA, the Institute for Strategic Research and Analysis, is the umbrella institute. EWRAC is its specialised early-warning centre.

EWRACEarly Warning Research and Analysis Centre · specialised operational centre

Methodology

How we rate threats

Every alert and report carries a threat level, so readers can see at a glance how serious a situation is.

LevelWhat it meansTimeframeRecommended posture
CriticalAttack or major violence under way or imminent; mass-casualty or strategic impact likely.Hours to daysTake immediate protective action and avoid the area.
HighCredible, specific threat; serious attacks recent or highly likely.Days to weeksHeighten security, restrict movement and activate contingency plans.
ElevatedArmed groups or unrest active; incidents occurring and escalation possible.WeeksMonitor closely and review security plans.
ModerateThreat present but limited, localised or low in capability.MonthsKeep standard precautions and routine monitoring.
LowNo significant indicators of threat.—Normal operations.

Each rating also carries a confidence level (high, moderate or low) based on the quality and number of sources.

Our team

People

Portrait of Leonardo Vitangui

Leonardo Vitangui

Senior Analyst, Peace & Security

Leonardo Vitangui is a peace and security analyst with more than 13 years of experience across Southern and East Africa, and institutional engagement spanning the African Union, SADC and the United Nations.

His work focuses on terrorism and violent extremism, the convergence of terrorism and organised crime, illicit mineral economies, the security of economic corridors, and the design of early-warning systems.

His experience includes election security analysis around Mozambique's 2025 and Zambia's 2026 general elections, regional counter-terrorism strategy work, and security advance work for high-level visits.

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