Insurgent violence has crippled local agriculture and trade in the Irumu territory, leaving rural populations facing potential famine and financial ruin. In the Lubero region, the group’s expansion is attributed to geographical barriers, security vacuums, and insufficient military logistics, further complicated by the presence of undisciplined local militias. Ultimately, the sources highlight a desperate need for better coordination and intelligence to dismantle a terror network that has successfully integrated into local socio-economic structures.

Factors contribute to the current situation:

Economic Asphyxiation in Irumu

In the southern part of the Irumu territory, particularly in Bandavilemba, the economic engine, agriculture is virtually at a standstill.

• Agricultural Collapse: Fear of attacks has forced many farmers to abandon their lands. Even when harvests like beans are successful, farmers struggle to find buyers due to the prevailing climate of terror.
• Commercial Paralysis: Recent attacks, such as the one in Butani village involving the burning of motorcycles and violence against civilians, have discouraged investment. Shops and kiosks operate at a minimum, and economic operators are hesitant to inject capital for fear of looting.

Strategic Entrenchment in Lubero

In the Lubero territory, specifically the Bapere and Baswagha sectors, ISCAP has successfully entrenched since June 2024.

• Geographical Advantages: The Bapere sector, which accounts for 51% of Lubero’s land area, is the second-largest forest massif in North Kivu. This dense, isolated terrain, filled with small footpaths and rivers without bridges, is ideal for guerrilla warfare.
• Logistical Failures: The lack of infrastructure prevents the FARDC from deploying heavy logistics. Soldiers often carry their own rations and munitions on foot, limiting their operational window to only about four days before needing to resupply, which allows ISCAP to reorganize.
• Security Vacuum and Militias: The group’s entry was facilitated by a lack of military presence, leaving the area in the hands of various Wazalendo CPU (Community Defense Groups). These local militias are often described as undisciplined or too weak to resist ISCAP, sometimes fleeing and leaving civilians vulnerable.

Socio-Economic Integration and Intelligence Gaps

ISCAP has evolved by integrating into local structures to ensure its survival:

• “Buffer Zones”: In mining areas like Isange and Budhudia, the group has established zones where they cohabit with civilians and impose a “cacao tax” on gold miners and traders to fund their operations.
• Intelligence Failures: The intelligence services (ANR) in these remote areas are severely underfunded, often lacking even basic communication credits to verify alerts.
• Local Recruitment: The group exploits the local population’s lack of understanding of their “jihadist” nature, recruiting local collaborators to act as spies or logistics providers.

Despite the efforts of the government entities calling for a three days strategic meeting in Beni (March 2026) aimed to create a “synergy” between the FARDC, UPDF, and MONUSCO to move beyond defensive stances and finally dismantle this network, ISCAP maintain entrenched amount the local community commanding and controlling the security narrative.

It covers Mozambique’s Islamic State’s (IS-M) terror activity, from December 2025 to 28 February 2026, provides an overview based on OSINT and HUMINT, aimed at assessing evolving terrorism threats and counterterrorism operations across the Southern African Development Community region through concise and comprehensive analysis.

MOZAMBIQUE

Six (06) military personnel from Mozambican (FADM) and Rwandan forces were killed in a claimed firearm ambush by the IS-M along road N380, near the village of Quinto Congreso in Macómia, on 26 February 2026.

Two (02) civilians from CPU–Namparamas were captured and killed during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M along the N380 road toward Quinto Congreso in Macomia, on 26 February 2026.

One (01) FADM soldier and one (01) civilian were killed, several military and medical equipment were captured, and two vehicles were damaged during a claimed firearm ambush by the IS-M near the village of Quinto Congreso in Macómia, on 24 February 2026.

Fourteen (14) DFS (FADM & RDF) personnel were killed, and several military equipment were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M, in Macomia on 24 February2026.

One (01) FADM soldier killed and several equipment were captured during a double claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on a military camp in Katupa forest, Macómia, on 15 February 2026.

Six (06) FADM soldiers were killed and several military equipment were captured during claimed firearm clashes in Katupa forest, Macómia, on 9 February 2026.

One (01) FADM soldier was killed and five (05) rifles were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on the village of Namabo in Macómia district, on 8 February, 2026.

Nine (09) FADM soldiers were killed, a military camp and barracks were burned, and a large amount of military equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on 3 February, 2026.

An FADM naval vessel was damaged during a mortar ambush targeting a military naval patrol near Sona Island in Mocímboa da Praia, on 27 January, 2026.

One (01) FADM soldier was captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M against a military camp near the village of Chai in Macómia district, on 10 January, 2026.

Several RDF personnel were killed, military equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M in Mukoju, Macómia, on 27 December 2025.

Five (05) RDF personnel were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M in Macómia on 26 December 2025.

Two (02) RDF naval patrol personnel were wounded during a claimed mortar ambush by the IS-M near Nabag Island in Mocímboa da Praia, on 26 December 2025.

Four (04) FADM soldiers were wounded during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M against a military patrol near the village of Kiterajo in Macomia, on 24 December 2025.

One (01) civilian was kidnapped and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M near the village of Magaya in Muidumbe, on 22 December 2025.

Two (02) CPU members were captured and beheaded during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M against civilian vigilantes near the village of Nambido in Nangade, on 12 December 2025.

Two (02) Military personnel were killed, four (04) wounded, and several military equipment were captured from Mozambican and Rwandan forces during a double claimed IED attack by the IS-M against a military road patrol near the village of Xitashi in Muidumbe district, on 7 December 2025.

Eight (08) military (FADM & RDF) personnel forces were wounded, one vehicle and several military equipment were captured during a claimed IED ambush by the IS-M on the road between the villages of Chitunda and Xitashi, on 6 December 2025.

This quarterly DRC ISCAP’s terror activity, covers December 2025 to 28 February 2026, provides an overview based on OSINT and HUMINT, aimed at assessing evolving terrorism threats and counterterrorism operations across the Southern African Development Community region through concise and comprehensive analysis.

EVENTS

One (01) FARDC soldier killed, and three (03) rifles were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against military barracks in the village of Sesa, Ituri, on 18 January 2026.

Three (03) FARDC soldiers were killed, and three (03) rifles were captured during a double claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against a military camp near the village of Kasuku in Ituri, on 19 January 2026.

Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near the village of Oicha in Beni, North Kivu Province, on 17 February.

Six (06) FARDC soldiers were wounded, several fled, and military barracks were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against military camps along the Oicha, Mamove road N4 in Beni, North Kivu Province on 19 February 2026.

Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded, and two (02) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mamove road N4 in Beni, North Kivu province on 13 February 2026.

Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded, and two (02) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mendobi road (N4) in Beni, North Kivu province on 13 February 2026.

Four (04) civilians were killed, two (02) by beheading and two (02) by firearm during a combined claimed firearm and bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against villages near Mindobi and Mbao in Beni territory in North Kivu province, on 14 February 2026.

Several FARDC soldiers fled a military camp in Mbao, Beni, North Kivu province following a claimed attack by the ISCAP, resulting in the seizure of military equipment and the burning of the camp, on 13 February 2026.

Five (05) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against a civilian target in Mbao, Beni, North Kivu Province on 10 February 2026.

One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, one (01) captured, one vehicle destroyed, and one (01) rifle captured during a claimed ambush by the ISCAP along the road connecting Otomabere in Ituri province, on 10 February 2026.

Two (02) civilians were captured and later beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Otomabere, Ituri, on 10 February 2026.

Twenty-one (21) civilians were killed, and several houses and barracks were burned during a triple claimed firearm and bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against the villages of Boti, Isigo (NR2), and Mambimbi in Lubero territory, North Kivu, on 6 February 2026.

Three (03) civilians were killed, and six (06) houses were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against Oicha in Beni territory, North Kivu, on 6 February 2025.

Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Oicha, Beni territory, North Kivu, on 4 February 2026.

Seven (07) civilians were killed during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP targeting motorcycles, followed by beheadings, on 4 February 2026.

Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 3 February 2026.

One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, one (01) wounded, and two firearms were captured during a claimed IED attack by the ISCAP against a military foot patrol in Mamove, Oicha, North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.

Six (06) FARDC soldiers were killed, several wounded, and weapons were captured during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP against a military patrol in Mamove, Ituri North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.

One (01) civilian was captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Chani, Ituri province, on 2 February 2026.

Eight (08) civilians were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Lubero, North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.

One (01) CPU member was beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mampilinga, Ituri, on 28 January 2026.

Seven (07) CPU members were killed and eleven (11) wounded during claimed clashes with the ISCAP in Mampilinga, Ituri, on 27 January 2026.

One (01) FARDC soldier was wounded, four (04) rifles were captured, and military barracks were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Manzibi, Ituri, on 27 January 2026.

Two (02) CPU members were killed, one (01) captured, and equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Mabindano, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.

Five (05) civilians were killed, and twenty (20) houses were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Musenge, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.

Two (02) FARDC soldiers were killed, and a military camp was burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Musenge, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.

One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, and several houses and military camps were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP near Bakulo, Ituri, on 25 January 2026.

Nineteen (19) civilians were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Ituri, on 25 January 2026.

Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Mampilinga, Ituri, on 24 January 2025.

Five (05) CPU personnel were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Biambi, Lubero, North Kivu, on 24 January 2026.

Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Otomabere, North Kivu, on 23 January 2026.

One (01) FARDC soldier was killed and one (01) wounded during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP near Kazaraho, Ituri, on 23 January 2026.

No casualties were reported during a clash between a FARDC patrol and the ISCAP near Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 21 January 2026.

Thirteen (13) CPU members were beheaded, and several houses, a school, and a church were burned during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 21 January 2025.

Nine (09) civilians were beheaded, and several houses were burned during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Bokia, Lubero, North Kivu, on 18 January 2026.

Four (04) civilians were captured and beheaded, and seven (07) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon ambush by the ISCAPon the Butembo–Manguredjipa road, Lubero, North Kivu, on 8 January 2026.

Eight (08) civilians were beheaded, and property was captured during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Mondela, Lubero, North Kivu, on 28 December 2025.

Several Operation Shujaa personnel were wounded during a claimed clash with the ISCAP near Bamanda, Ituri, on 19 December 2025.

Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Umbolu, Lubero, North Kivu Province on 17 December 2025.

One (01) UPDF soldier was killed, and several Ugandan and DRC soldiers were wounded during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP near Mungamba, Ituri, on 13 December 2025.

One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, and one rifle was captured during a claimed firearm ambush by the ISCAP near Idoho, Ituri, on 11 December 2025.

Three (03) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Idoho, Ituri, on 10 December 2025.

Nine (09) civilians were kidnapped, and twenty (20) houses and a FARDC barracks were burned during a claimed attack by the ISCAP in Ituri, on 6 December 2025.

One (01) CPU member was killed, and several were wounded during a claimed IED attack by the ISCAP near Mungu, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.

Two (02) FARDC soldiers were killed, several wounded, and one firearm was captured during a claimed attack by the ISCAP in Isangu, Lubero, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.

Two (02) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Umbolu, Lubero, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.

Two (02) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Icobaye, Lubero, Ituri on 6 December 2025.

Two civilians were killed, several others abducted, and numerous properties looted during coordinated attacks on Monday, March 30, in the villages of Makoko, Muchanga, and surrounding areas in the Mambasa territory of Ituri province, according to EWRAC local sources.

Following the incursions, thousands of residents fled their homes, seeking refuge primarily in Mambasa and Bahaha, while access to fields became restricted and traffic along National Route 4 was severely disrupted. The attackers reportedly opened fire on homes, catching many residents off guard during the night.

These latest attacks follow earlier assaults by ISCAP terrorists in Muchanga and Karthoum on March 29, which also involved widespread looting and abductions. The repeated nature of these incursions has caused mass displacement across approximately ten villages, including those not directly attacked but located along the RN4 corridor.

The Ituri Provincial Youth Council highlights that despite ongoing FARDC operations, ISCAP continues to inflict significant civilian casualties in Mambasa and Djugu. The organization stresses that the central government must treat the ISCAP insurgency as a national emergency, urging international engagement and framing the threat on par with other major armed groups, such as M23. “For too long, civilians have been dying. The ISCAP threat cannot remain a secondary concern. This situation demands immediate national and international attention,” stated a member of the council.

Local authorities have not yet issued a formal statement regarding these attacks, leaving communities reliant on humanitarian assistance and security support from the FARDC to mitigate further losses.

The discovery of approximately twenty live explosive projectiles in Lake Victoria near Mbita Point raises broader security and governance concerns for the states surrounding the lake. Given the well-documented military history of the region during the Second World War, the presence of unexploded ordnance should not be entirely unexpected.

The Lake Victoria basin, particularly around former logistics hubs such as Kisumu and nearby transit routes, served as an operational corridor for Allied forces. Numerous aircraft accidents involving military cargo occurred in the lake, and historical records confirm that weapons, ammunition, and other military equipment were lost during these incidents. From a risk management perspective, areas with such a concentration of wartime activity should long ago have been designated for systematic underwater screening and ordnance clearance operations.

The absence of comprehensive surveys increases the likelihood that additional military materials remain on the lakebed, posing a continuing hazard to civilian communities that depend on fishing and transport. Beyond the safety risks to fishermen and lakeside populations, the discovery also carries implications in the context of contemporary security threats.

Armed extremist groups often emerge from local communities and are typically familiar with the historical narratives, geography, and hidden resources within their operational environments. It is therefore plausible that individuals within extremist or criminal networks are aware that the lakebed may contain remnants of military equipment from past conflicts. Such knowledge could potentially motivate attempts to recover or exploit these materials.

Militant organizations operating in the broader region, particularly those linked to the Islamic State affiliates, have significantly refined their use of improvised explosive devices. Both the ISCAP in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and the IS-M insurgency in Cabo Delgado have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to construct effective IEDs using a range of available explosive materials. In both theatres, military convoys and security patrols have been targeted with explosive devices designed to maximize disruption and casualties.

In this context, the existence of military-grade explosive remnants within Lake Victoria raises an important strategic question. To what extent might such submerged munitions already have been recovered, repurposed, or integrated into clandestine supply chains supporting terrorism or criminal activities without detection?

The key concern is not only the discovery itself, but the uncertainty surrounding how much ordnance may still remain submerged and unaccounted for. Without systematic underwater surveys and coordinated regional monitoring, it is difficult to determine whether such materials have already been recovered in the past without detection.

For the governments bordering Lake Victoria, this incident highlights the importance of proactive security measures that combine historical awareness with contemporary counterterrorism risk assessment. Comprehensive mapping of suspected crash sites, underwater ordnance clearance operations, and coordinated intelligence sharing between Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda would significantly reduce the risk that legacy wartime materials could be diverted into modern insurgent or criminal supply chains.

In a region where extremist organizations have already demonstrated growing expertise in explosive warfare, even small quantities of recovered military ordnance could have disproportionate operational consequences if exploited.

On 2 March 2026, approximately twenty live explosive projectiles were discovered in the waters of Lake Victoria near Litare Beach in Mbita Point, Kenya. The devices were recovered by local fishermen who initially believed they had caught a large fish but later realized the object was a container holding explosive ordnance and ammunition. Police and security authorities were immediately notified and subsequently secured the area, removing the hazardous materials for technical assessment. Preliminary identification suggests the devices are highly explosive projectiles weighing approximately 1.1 kilograms each, believed to be ammunition British PIAT’s (Projector, Infantry, Anti-Tank) weapon system used by Commonwealth forces during the Second World War.

The discovery occurred in a geographically sensitive section of Lake Victoria that connects Kenyan fishing communities with nearby Tanzanian waters around Musoma, Tamire, and Mfangano Island, as well as maritime routes used by Ugandan fishermen. The lake functions as a major regional economic corridor where thousands of small vessels operate daily for fishing and informal cross-border trade. The unexpected recovery of live explosives therefore generated immediate concern among local communities and authorities due to the potential danger posed by unexploded ordnance in an area of intense civilian activity.

Historical context suggests that the presence of such munitions in Lake Victoria may be linked to wartime military activity in East Africa during the Second World War. During that period, the region surrounding the lake served as an important logistical corridor for Allied forces operating across the East African theater. The Royal Air Force base in Kisumu played a central role as a staging and transit hub where aircraft, military personnel, and weapons were moved between operational fronts and supply depots across the British Empire.

Several Allied squadrons operated from Kisumu, including ferry squadrons responsible for transporting aircraft and military equipment across long-distance routes. The base also hosted South African Air Force units, including No. 2 Squadron, known as the “Flying Cheetahs,” which conducted aerial operations against Italian forces during the East African campaign. The movement of military cargo through the base included weapons, ammunition, and other logistical supplies destined for operational units in Africa and beyond.

Historical aviation records show that several aircraft carrying personnel and military cargo crashed in or near Lake Victoria during this period. 19 December 1941, a Lockheed Lodestar aircraft operated by the South African Air Force crashed into the lake shortly after departing the Royal Air Force station in Kisumu while en route to Johannesburg. The crash killed all personnel on board, including Major General Daniel Hermanus Pienaar and several senior officers. The aircraft’s cargo was lost in the lake.

Additional incidents occurred during the final months of the war. 11 May 1945, a Douglas C-47A aircraft transporting weapons from the United Kingdom to the South African Air Force base at Waterkloof in Pretoria crashed into Lake Victoria shortly after takeoff from Kisumu. While the two pilots survived, the passenger drowned and the cargo of military equipment was never recovered. July 1945, two further aviation disasters occurred in the same region, including the crash of a Royal Air Force Consolidated Catalina flying boat during landing operations and another South African Air Force Douglas C-47A that crashed near Rusinga Island, killing all twenty-eight individuals on board. The weapons and supplies being transported in these aircraft were also lost in the lake.

Given these historical incidents, it is plausible that the explosive projectiles recently recovered by fishermen formed part of wartime cargo lost during one of these aircraft crashes or were disposed of in the lake following the end of the conflict. Some historical accounts also suggest that additional weapons may have been discarded in the lake as surplus military stock or lost during clandestine cross-lake movements by insurgent groups in later decades.

Although the devices appear to be legacy munitions dating from the Second World War, the discovery highlights the continuing risks associated with unexploded ordnance in historically militarized environments. Lake Victoria remains one of the most active inland waterways in Africa, supporting dense fishing activity and informal maritime traffic between Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The presence of unexploded explosives in such an environment presents both a public safety risk and a potential security concern should such materials be recovered and misused by criminal actors.

For regional authorities, the incident underscores the need for coordinated monitoring and potential underwater surveys to determine whether additional unexploded ordnance remains scattered within the lakebed. Cooperation between Kenyan, Tanzanian, and Ugandan maritime and security agencies may therefore be necessary to ensure that similar discoveries do not pose a continuing threat to local populations and economic activity across the Lake Victoria basin.