Insurgent violence has crippled local agriculture and trade in the Irumu territory, leaving rural populations facing potential famine and financial ruin. In the Lubero region, the group’s expansion is attributed to geographical barriers, security vacuums, and insufficient military logistics, further complicated by the presence of undisciplined local militias. Ultimately, the sources highlight a desperate need for better coordination and intelligence to dismantle a terror network that has successfully integrated into local socio-economic structures.
Factors contribute to the current situation:
Economic Asphyxiation in Irumu
In the southern part of the Irumu territory, particularly in Bandavilemba, the economic engine, agriculture is virtually at a standstill.
- Agricultural Collapse: Fear of attacks has forced many farmers to abandon their lands. Even when harvests like beans are successful, farmers struggle to find buyers due to the prevailing climate of terror.
- Commercial Paralysis: Recent attacks, such as the one in Butani village involving the burning of motorcycles and violence against civilians, have discouraged investment. Shops and kiosks operate at a minimum, and economic operators are hesitant to inject capital for fear of looting.
Strategic Entrenchment in Lubero
In the Lubero territory, specifically the Bapere and Baswagha sectors, ISCAP has successfully entrenched since June 2024.
- Geographical Advantages: The Bapere sector, which accounts for 51% of Lubero’s land area, is the second-largest forest massif in North Kivu. This dense, isolated terrain, filled with small footpaths and rivers without bridges, is ideal for guerrilla warfare.
- Logistical Failures: The lack of infrastructure prevents the FARDC from deploying heavy logistics. Soldiers often carry their own rations and munitions on foot, limiting their operational window to only about four days before needing to resupply, which allows ISCAP to reorganize.
- Security Vacuum and Militias: The group’s entry was facilitated by a lack of military presence, leaving the area in the hands of various Wazalendo CPU (Community Defense Groups). These local militias are often described as undisciplined or too weak to resist ISCAP, sometimes fleeing and leaving civilians vulnerable.
Socio-Economic Integration and Intelligence Gaps
ISCAP has evolved by integrating into local structures to ensure its survival:
- “Buffer Zones”: In mining areas like Isange and Budhudia, the group has established zones where they cohabit with civilians and impose a “cacao tax” on gold miners and traders to fund their operations.
- Intelligence Failures: The intelligence services (ANR) in these remote areas are severely underfunded, often lacking even basic communication credits to verify alerts.
- Local Recruitment: The group exploits the local population’s lack of understanding of their “jihadist” nature, recruiting local collaborators to act as spies or logistics providers.
Despite the efforts of the government entities calling for a three days strategic meeting in Beni (March 2026) aimed to create a “synergy” between the FARDC, UPDF, and MONUSCO to move beyond defensive stances and finally dismantle this network, ISCAP maintain entrenched amount the local community commanding and controlling the security narrative.
It covers Mozambique’s Islamic State’s (IS-M) terror activity, from December 2025 to 28 February 2026, provides an overview based on OSINT and HUMINT, aimed at assessing evolving terrorism threats and counterterrorism operations across the Southern African Development Community region through concise and comprehensive analysis.
MOZAMBIQUE
Six (06) military personnel from Mozambican (FADM) and Rwandan forces were killed in a claimed firearm ambush by the IS-M along road N380, near the village of Quinto Congreso in Macómia, on 26 February 2026.
Two (02) civilians from CPU–Namparamas were captured and killed during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M along the N380 road toward Quinto Congreso in Macomia, on 26 February 2026.
One (01) FADM soldier and one (01) civilian were killed, several military and medical equipment were captured, and two vehicles were damaged during a claimed firearm ambush by the IS-M near the village of Quinto Congreso in Macómia, on 24 February 2026.
Fourteen (14) DFS (FADM & RDF) personnel were killed, and several military equipment were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M, in Macomia on 24 February2026.
One (01) FADM soldier killed and several equipment were captured during a double claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on a military camp in Katupa forest, Macómia, on 15 February 2026.
Six (06) FADM soldiers were killed and several military equipment were captured during claimed firearm clashes in Katupa forest, Macómia, on 9 February 2026.
One (01) FADM soldier was killed and five (05) rifles were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on the village of Namabo in Macómia district, on 8 February, 2026.
Nine (09) FADM soldiers were killed, a military camp and barracks were burned, and a large amount of military equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M on 3 February, 2026.
An FADM naval vessel was damaged during a mortar ambush targeting a military naval patrol near Sona Island in Mocímboa da Praia, on 27 January, 2026.
One (01) FADM soldier was captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M against a military camp near the village of Chai in Macómia district, on 10 January, 2026.
Several RDF personnel were killed, military equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M in Mukoju, Macómia, on 27 December 2025.
Five (05) RDF personnel were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M in Macómia on 26 December 2025.
Two (02) RDF naval patrol personnel were wounded during a claimed mortar ambush by the IS-M near Nabag Island in Mocímboa da Praia, on 26 December 2025.
Four (04) FADM soldiers were wounded during a claimed firearm attack by the IS-M against a military patrol near the village of Kiterajo in Macomia, on 24 December 2025.
One (01) civilian was kidnapped and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M near the village of Magaya in Muidumbe, on 22 December 2025.
Two (02) CPU members were captured and beheaded during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the IS-M against civilian vigilantes near the village of Nambido in Nangade, on 12 December 2025.
Two (02) Military personnel were killed, four (04) wounded, and several military equipment were captured from Mozambican and Rwandan forces during a double claimed IED attack by the IS-M against a military road patrol near the village of Xitashi in Muidumbe district, on 7 December 2025.
Eight (08) military (FADM & RDF) personnel forces were wounded, one vehicle and several military equipment were captured during a claimed IED ambush by the IS-M on the road between the villages of Chitunda and Xitashi, on 6 December 2025.
This quarterly DRC ISCAP’s terror activity, covers December 2025 to 28 February 2026, provides an overview based on OSINT and HUMINT, aimed at assessing evolving terrorism threats and counterterrorism operations across the Southern African Development Community region through concise and comprehensive analysis.
EVENTS
One (01) FARDC soldier killed, and three (03) rifles were captured during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against military barracks in the village of Sesa, Ituri, on 18 January 2026.
Three (03) FARDC soldiers were killed, and three (03) rifles were captured during a double claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against a military camp near the village of Kasuku in Ituri, on 19 January 2026.
Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near the village of Oicha in Beni, North Kivu Province, on 17 February.
Six (06) FARDC soldiers were wounded, several fled, and military barracks were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against military camps along the Oicha, Mamove road N4 in Beni, North Kivu Province on 19 February 2026.
Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded, and two (02) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mamove road N4 in Beni, North Kivu province on 13 February 2026.
Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded, and two (02) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mendobi road (N4) in Beni, North Kivu province on 13 February 2026.
Four (04) civilians were killed, two (02) by beheading and two (02) by firearm during a combined claimed firearm and bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against villages near Mindobi and Mbao in Beni territory in North Kivu province, on 14 February 2026.
Several FARDC soldiers fled a military camp in Mbao, Beni, North Kivu province following a claimed attack by the ISCAP, resulting in the seizure of military equipment and the burning of the camp, on 13 February 2026.
Five (05) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against a civilian target in Mbao, Beni, North Kivu Province on 10 February 2026.
One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, one (01) captured, one vehicle destroyed, and one (01) rifle captured during a claimed ambush by the ISCAP along the road connecting Otomabere in Ituri province, on 10 February 2026.
Two (02) civilians were captured and later beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Otomabere, Ituri, on 10 February 2026.
Twenty-one (21) civilians were killed, and several houses and barracks were burned during a triple claimed firearm and bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP against the villages of Boti, Isigo (NR2), and Mambimbi in Lubero territory, North Kivu, on 6 February 2026.
Three (03) civilians were killed, and six (06) houses were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP against Oicha in Beni territory, North Kivu, on 6 February 2025.
Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Oicha, Beni territory, North Kivu, on 4 February 2026.
Seven (07) civilians were killed during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP targeting motorcycles, followed by beheadings, on 4 February 2026.
Two (02) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 3 February 2026.
One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, one (01) wounded, and two firearms were captured during a claimed IED attack by the ISCAP against a military foot patrol in Mamove, Oicha, North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.
Six (06) FARDC soldiers were killed, several wounded, and weapons were captured during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP against a military patrol in Mamove, Ituri North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.
One (01) civilian was captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Chani, Ituri province, on 2 February 2026.
Eight (08) civilians were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Lubero, North Kivu, on 2 February 2026.
One (01) CPU member was beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Mampilinga, Ituri, on 28 January 2026.
Seven (07) CPU members were killed and eleven (11) wounded during claimed clashes with the ISCAP in Mampilinga, Ituri, on 27 January 2026.
One (01) FARDC soldier was wounded, four (04) rifles were captured, and military barracks were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Manzibi, Ituri, on 27 January 2026.
Two (02) CPU members were killed, one (01) captured, and equipment was captured during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Mabindano, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.
Five (05) civilians were killed, and twenty (20) houses were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Musenge, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.
Two (02) FARDC soldiers were killed, and a military camp was burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Musenge, Lubero, North Kivu, on 26 January 2026.
One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, and several houses and military camps were burned during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP near Bakulo, Ituri, on 25 January 2026.
Nineteen (19) civilians were killed during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP in Ituri, on 25 January 2026.
Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Mampilinga, Ituri, on 24 January 2025.
Five (05) CPU personnel were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Biambi, Lubero, North Kivu, on 24 January 2026.
Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Otomabere, North Kivu, on 23 January 2026.
One (01) FARDC soldier was killed and one (01) wounded during a claimed firearm attack by the ISCAP near Kazaraho, Ituri, on 23 January 2026.
No casualties were reported during a clash between a FARDC patrol and the ISCAP near Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 21 January 2026.
Thirteen (13) CPU members were beheaded, and several houses, a school, and a church were burned during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Cantine, Lubero, North Kivu, on 21 January 2025.
Nine (09) civilians were beheaded, and several houses were burned during a double claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Bokia, Lubero, North Kivu, on 18 January 2026.
Four (04) civilians were captured and beheaded, and seven (07) motorcycles were burned during a claimed bladed weapon ambush by the ISCAPon the Butembo–Manguredjipa road, Lubero, North Kivu, on 8 January 2026.
Eight (08) civilians were beheaded, and property was captured during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Mondela, Lubero, North Kivu, on 28 December 2025.
Several Operation Shujaa personnel were wounded during a claimed clash with the ISCAP near Bamanda, Ituri, on 19 December 2025.
Three (03) civilians were captured and beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP near Umbolu, Lubero, North Kivu Province on 17 December 2025.
One (01) UPDF soldier was killed, and several Ugandan and DRC soldiers were wounded during a claimed IED ambush by the ISCAP near Mungamba, Ituri, on 13 December 2025.
One (01) FARDC soldier was killed, and one rifle was captured during a claimed firearm ambush by the ISCAP near Idoho, Ituri, on 11 December 2025.
Three (03) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Idoho, Ituri, on 10 December 2025.
Nine (09) civilians were kidnapped, and twenty (20) houses and a FARDC barracks were burned during a claimed attack by the ISCAP in Ituri, on 6 December 2025.
One (01) CPU member was killed, and several were wounded during a claimed IED attack by the ISCAP near Mungu, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.
Two (02) FARDC soldiers were killed, several wounded, and one firearm was captured during a claimed attack by the ISCAP in Isangu, Lubero, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.
Two (02) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Umbolu, Lubero, Ituri, on 6 December 2025.
Two (02) civilians were beheaded during a claimed bladed weapon attack by the ISCAP in Icobaye, Lubero, Ituri on 6 December 2025.
As a result of an ISCAP-claimed attack, the civilian death toll in Bafwakoa, Mambasa territory, Ituri province, has risen from eleven (11) to thirty-two (32), and now stands at forty-three (43) fatalities as of 2 April 2026, according to an official statement from the FARDC operational sector in Ituri. The victims, largely linked to mining and transport activities along the RN4 axis, were buried by rescue teams on 4 April. The attack, initially targeting a convoy transporting gold mining equipment, has evolved into one of the deadliest recent incidents in the area.
CT Ops
FARDC has confirmed the launch and intensification of targeted counterterrorism operations aimed at neutralizing ISCAP elements entrenched in nearby forested zones. Troop movements toward these areas have been reported, indicating a shift toward pursuit and clearance operations. Authorities have stated that measures are being implemented to restore state authority and reinforce civilian protection along the affected corridor.
Situation Update and Impact
The attack has triggered significant population displacement toward Nia-nia, where economic activity was temporarily paralyzed before partially resuming. The RN4 corridor remains highly volatile, with restricted movement and persistent fear among civilians. Civil society actors report approximately one hundred (100) deaths over a two-week period in Mambasa, underscoring a sustained escalation trend.
Analysis
The increase in casualties reinforces ISCAP’s intent to dominate the RN4 economic corridor, particularly targeting mining-linked logistics. This axis is critical for the movement of gold and agricultural commodities, making it a strategic objective for insurgent disruption and control. The systematic targeting of civilians associated with extraction and transport suggests a deliberate effort to collapse economic resilience and assert influence over resource flows.
If current operations fail to secure the corridor and dismantle insurgent rear bases, ISCAP is likely to entrench further, transforming RN4 into a persistent high-risk zone. Sustained military pressure, combined with route securitization and community-based intelligence integration, will be decisive in reversing this trajectory.
As a result of an ISCAP claimed attack, thirty-two (32) civilians were killed during a coordinated triple bladed weapon and firearm ambush on the night of 2 April 2026 in Bafwakoa, Mambasa territory, Ituri province. The victims, primarily motorcycle taxi drivers and employees of a local mining company, were intercepted while transporting gold mining equipment from Muchacha to Nia–Nia along the strategic RN4 axis. Terrorists, immobilized the convoy before executing passengers, predominantly with bladed weapons, indicating close-range, controlled killings. The incident also resulted in significant material losses and immediate paralysis of economic activity in Nia-nia, where bodies were later transported, triggering widespread panic and mass closure of commercial infrastructure.
Counter Terrorism Operation
At the time of reporting, no immediate large-scale counterterrorism response has been confirmed. However, the attack occurred amid ongoing FARDC operations in the Muchacha area, suggesting a failure to secure key economic and logistical routes despite active military presence. The absence of rapid containment highlights persistent gaps in route security and forward intelligence.
Analysis
Targeting of a mining-linked convoy underscores ISCAP’s strategic prioritization of resource corridors. The Muchacha–Nia-Nia axis represents a critical extraction and transit route for artisanal gold, making it both economically valuable and operationally vulnerable. By attacking mining personnel and transport assets, ISCAP is simultaneously disrupting local economies, deterring labor return, and asserting control over resource flows.
This pattern suggests an emerging resource-denial and extraction strategy, where violence is used to dominate mining ecosystems and potentially redirect revenue streams. If unaddressed, ISCAP is likely to consolidate influence along the RN4 corridor, transforming it into a contested supply chain under insurgent pressure. Immediate prioritization of corridor security, combined with sustained ISR coverage and localized force projection, will be critical to prevent further economic collapse and insurgent entrenchment.