The national election security environment is assessed as MODERATE and RISING. SUBSTANTIAL threats remain concentrated in the Copperbelt, particularly Kitwe and the Ndola townships of Chifubu, Kawama and Twapia, and in Lusaka, where ballot movement between Kenneth Kaunda International Airport to the ECZ Silverest warehouse has become a distinct security sensitivity. During this period, Copperbelt remains the Mission’s highest-risk environment.

The detention of Kennedy Kamba on 27 July was the period’s most consequential development. Kamba, Deputy Secretary General for Voter Protection for Tonse Alliance/NRPUP, was among five NRPUP officials accredited to inspect ballot papers at the airport and Silverest warehouse. NRPUP described detention as political intent. Its timing, as ballot verification began, has reinforced opposition claims of exclusion and placed ballot transparency at the center of the security picture.

Ballot logistics are central. Under ZPS escort, the ECZ received 202 pallets from Dubai printed by Al Ghurair Printing and Publishing, with 185 more expected, moving them to Silverest, where verification began on 27 July under a security photography ban. Chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis dismissed as misinformation a social media claim that extra ballots were being printed in Tanzania and smuggled via Nakonde[1]. NRPUP’s parallel secrecy allegations imply the concealment is covered to insert those ballots, creating the real risk that normal security arrangements are portrayed as evidence of manipulation.

Two further pressures on the electoral climate persisted, distinct in nature but similar in effect. On 28 July four candidates in Chongwe East withdrew from their races. Robster Mwanza (Resolute Party, Chongwe East Constituency), Kelly Nyambe (NRPUP, Mulenje Ward), Brian Mutalange (Independent, Lwimba Ward) and David Daka (UPPZ, Chalimbana Ward) yet, printing already complete, their names remain on the ballots, creating a risk of voters confusion.

Lastly, the  ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka remains charged and in custody under the Cyber Crimes Act, a case condemned by Amnesty International, the Committee to Protect Journalists and the International Federation of Journalists as an attack on press freedom.

Judgment 

  • The decline in violence from 27–30 July appears to be temporary. Tensions in Kitwe and Ndola remain unresolved, and the risk of renewed political-supporter violence remains high through polling day.
  • Ballot integrity has become the central election-security issue. Escorted deliveries, the Silverest verification, the Kamba arrest and NRPUP’s suspicious secrecy accusations place ballot handling at the center of trust in the process.
  • The detention of an accredited opposition ballot-inspector Kennedy Kamba risks being read domestically and internationally as obstruction of opposition oversight, regardless of the eventual charge.
  • The information environment is now the principal threat multiplier. The allegations of printed ballot papers in Tanzania and the ballot dispute are generating disinformation faster than authorities can counter it.
  • Election security is police-led and broadly capable, but opposition trust in the ZPS has weakened. The greater risk is not whether police can maintain order, but whether political actors and the public will view their actions as fair and neutral when results are announced.

Electoral Environment

The electoral process remains MODERATE and operational but with increasingly contested around ballot logistics. The ECZ confirmed that printing in Dubai by Al Ghurair Printing and Publishing was complete and that chartered consignments were arriving daily under ZPS escort. 30 July, the ECZ reported 202 pallets landed with 185 more expected on 31st July and 1st august. Ballots are secured at the ECZ Silverest warehouse in Lusaka, where stakeholder verification began on 27 July with photography prohibited. ECZ Chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis dismissed claims of additional printing in Tanzania as the misinformation on public domain.

Disputes over polling-agent accreditation remain unresolved, and NRPUP has now formally accused the ECZ of withholding information on ballot movement, routing and storage. Withdrawal the ECZ recorded four candidate withdrawals in Chongwe East, the Resolute Party, NRPUP, Independent and UPPZ, their names remain on the ballots, creating a risk of confusion among voters.

Political Dynamics

Political competition remained confrontational but shifted from the street to the process. The detention of Kennedy Kamba, NRPUP/Tonse Deputy Secretary General for Voter Protection and an accredited ballot inspector, at KKI Airport on 27 July became the focal grievance. NRPUP called it political intent to and demanded his release, and they continued to attribute the earlier Copperbelt violence to UPND former Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe and Frank Tayali and the former Copperbelt Province Minister Elisha Matambo. Ate the same time, ZPS investigates seven confirmed cases of malicious damage to NRPUP vehicles in central Kitwe (NRPUP alleges more than 15 vehicles damaged). The opposition continued to appeal to international observers to witness what it describes as shrinking democratic space.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Space and Rule of Law

ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka, charged under Section 10 of the Cyber Crimes Act No. 4 of 2025, remains in custody at Kabwata Police Station. Amnesty International, the Committee to Protect Journalists and the International Federation of Journalists maintain their calls for his release. Kamba arrest adds a second high-profile detention with rule of law implications, following the reported denial of lawyer access to NRPUP detainees (Charles Kabwita, Pavyuma Kalobo) in Kitwe. The Kaputa suspension was lifted on 22 July, but NRPUP’s legal challenge continues.

Hotspot Assessment

  • Copperbelt Province – Kitwe and Ndola (Chifubu, Kawama, Twapia), is assessed as SUBSTANTIAL. Highest operational priority. The province was the center of violence from 24-26 July, including the Sherbourne Hotel attack, seven (fifteen) vehicle attacks, a party-office break-in, stone-throwing, and 27 This current calm period, 27–30 July, is assessed as temporary. Dense urban populations, organised party supporters, and low opposition trust in police keep the risk of renewed violence high.
  • Lusaka Province – Matero, Kalingalinga, Chawama, Kenneth Kaunda International Airport and Silverest, is assessed as SUBSTANTIAL. Lusaka is now the main ballot-security concern. Police escorted ballot movements, Kamba’s detention, and high campaign activity increase risk around transport routes, electoral facilities, and observer movements through polling day.
  • Northern Province – Kaputa, requires continuous MONITORING, ECZ lifted the NRPUP suspension on 22 July after police reported improved stability. The pending legal challenge remains a potential trigger for renewed tension.
  • Southern Province – Mazabuka, Magoye East, is assessed as MODERATE. No incidents were recorded during the reporting period. However, the unresolved Magoye East investigation into the earlier campaign related death of Stanley Sakala remains a live grievance, and established party structures in both districts could trigger new security risk situation.

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[1] No company was named and no evidence produced