POLITICAL TENSIONS SHIFT FROM STREET VIOLENCE TO INSTITUTIONAL CONTESTATION

The national election security environment remained MODERATE and RISING during the reporting period, with SUBSTANTIAL threats assessed in identified electoral hotspot constituencies. For the second consecutive week, no inter-party campaign fatalities were recorded, indicating a continued reduction in organized political violence. However, the threat environment has shifted decisively from physical confrontation toward institutional legitimacy, political messaging, and information operations, increasing the risk of post-election disputes.

The reporting period was dominated by opposition allegations of systematic political interference. On 16 July, Tonse Alliance presidential candidate Brian Mundubile submitted a 10-point complaint to the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU-EOM) alleging inequality procedures by Electoral Commission. The following day, police disrupted a Tonse Alliance roadshow in Kalingalinga, Lusaka, reinforcing opposition claims of unequal enforcement. These allegations were amplified on 18 July, when Makebi Zulu removed a bulletproof vest during a rally in Matero, Lusaka, portraying the opposition as operating under threat.

The week’s only fatality occurred during the same rally when a child was struck and killed by a vehicle entering the venue. Although police confirmed the incident was accidental, it highlights the continuing risks associated with crowd management and vehicle movements at campaign events, presenting a direct operational concern for election observers.

Confidence in the electoral process continues to erode. President Hakainde Hichilema’s campaign activities in Kaputa, where NRPUP remains suspended by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ), unresolved disputes over polling-agent accreditation, and the 19 July arrest of ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka under the Cyber Crimes Act have further strengthened opposition narratives of institutional bias and shrinking democratic space.

Regionally, the expansion of the Bundibugyo Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly South Kivu, continues to present a cross-border public health concern for Zambia despite no confirmed domestic cases.

KEY JUDGEMENTS

  • Election-related violence continues to decline, with no inter-party campaign fatalities recorded for the second consecutive week. However, isolated incidents continue to demonstrate significant crowd-management risks.
  • Institutional legitimacy has become the principal security concern. Disputes involving the ECZ, campaign restrictions in Kaputa, and unresolved polling-agent accreditation continue to undermine confidence in the electoral process.
  • Opposition parties are increasingly internationalizing electoral grievances. Direct engagement with the EU-EOM indicates a deliberate effort to secure external validation of allegations against state institutions.
  • Political messaging and information operations have replaced street violence as the primary threat multiplier. Narratives of political targeting, media restrictions, and electoral bias are becoming increasingly influential ahead of polling day.
  • Democratic space remains under pressure. The arrest of ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka under the Cyber Crimes Act is likely to intensify domestic and international scrutiny of Zambia’s pre-election environment.

CURRENT SECURITY PICTURE

Electoral Environment

The electoral environment remained generally calm but increasingly polarized. While campaign-related violence continued to decline, political competition became increasingly focused on the credibility and impartiality of electoral institutions rather than physical confrontation.

President Hakainde Hichilema, exempt from the ECZ rotational campaign timetable in his capacity as Head of State, campaigned across Muchinga Province (Nakonde, Mafinga, Isoka, Mpika, Kanchibiya, Lavushimanda and Chinsali) before continuing to Kaputa, Chilubi, Nsama and Mporokoso in Northern Province. His campaign appearance in Kaputa, where NRPUP remains suspended from campaigning by the ECZ, continues to reinforce opposition perceptions of unequal application of electoral regulations and remains one of the principal political grievances ahead of polling.

Confidence in the electoral process also remains affected by the unresolved polling-agent accreditation dispute. The Tonse Alliance and NRPUP continue to oppose ECZ’s online-only accreditation system, arguing that technical failures could prevent opposition agents from accessing polling stations. The absence of an alternative accreditation mechanism continues to provide opposition parties with grounds to challenge the credibility of the electoral process.

Political Dynamics

Political messaging intensified significantly during the reporting period as both government and opposition sought to shape domestic and international perceptions of the electoral environment.

On 16 July, Tonse Alliance presidential candidate Brian Mundubile submitted a 10-point complaint to the EU-EOM alleging selective law enforcement, unequal campaign suspensions, state media bias, procedural changes during the campaign, and interference by public institutions. The complaint also requested increased observer deployment to politically sensitive constituencies[1], demonstrating a deliberate effort to internationalize electoral grievances.

The opposition reinforced this narrative following the 17 July police disruption of the Mundubile Makebi Zulu roadshow in Kalingalinga, Lusaka. On 18 July, during a rally in Matero, Makebi Zulu publicly removed his bulletproof vest, portraying opposition leaders as operating under threat from state institutions. On 19 July, Leadership Movement Secretary General Jairos Ngoma accused the UPND of being the “mother of violence”, while opposition parties continued alleging systematic obstruction of their campaigns.

Democratic Space and Rule of Law

Pressure on Zambia’s democratic space increased during the reporting period. On 19 July, ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka (37) was arrested under Section 10 of the Cyber Crimes Act No. 4 of 2025 for allegedly recording and publishing, without consent, an audio recording of a private meeting reportedly involving UPND officials including Secretary General Batuke Imenda. Government officials defended the arrest as lawful, while civil society organizations and digital rights groups argued that the legislation could discourage independent journalism during the election period.

Several politically sensitive issues also remain unresolved. The NRPUP[2] suspension in Kaputa remains in force pending a High Court decision. The Magoye East investigation relating to the death of Stanley Sakala remains unresolved, while concerns over the voters’ register, constituency boundaries and the pending Public Gatherings Act Amendment Bill continue to feature prominently in opposition messaging.

Regional Security Environment

The regional security environment remained stable but requires continued monitoring. The Bundibugyo Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the DRC continued to expand during the reporting period. South Kivu remains the province of greatest operational relevance to Zambia because of regional population movement and cross-border transport corridors. Zambia has reported no confirmed EVD cases, although national preparedness measures remain in place.

No TERRORIST or organized armed-group threats to Zambia or the electoral process were identified during the reporting period.

ASSESSMENT

For the second consecutive week, no inter-party campaign fatalities were recorded, indicating a reduction in election-related violence. However, the improvement remains fragile. The week’s only fatality a child struck and killed by a vehicle entering a Tonse Alliance rally in Matero, Lusaka was accidental rather than politically motivated, but it highlights the risks associated with poor crowd and vehicle management at large campaign events, a challenge likely to affect election observers.

The more significant development is the continued shift from physical violence to institutional distrust and information operations. The opposition has strengthened its narrative of systematic political targeting through the 17th July Kalingalinga roadshow disruption, Brian Mundubile’s 10-point complaint and Makebi Zulu’s public bulletproof-vest demonstration. Together with the arrest of ZNBC journalist MacPherson Mukuka and unresolved disputes over Kaputa, Magoye East, and polling-agent accreditation, these issues are steadily undermining confidence in the electoral process.

The principal threat is no longer widespread campaign violence but declining trust in electoral institutions and competing political narratives, creating conditions that could trigger disputes over the election outcome.

Hotspot

The overall security environment remains manageable, but four areas require enhanced monitoring due to their potential to affect election observation operations.

Lusaka Province – SUBSTANTIAL

Lusaka remains the Mission’s highest operational priority. During the reporting period, the province accounted for the Kalingalinga police disruption (17th July), the fatal rally vehicle accident in Matero (18 July), Makebi Zulu’s public threat signaling, and the arrest of journalist MacPherson Mukuka (19th July). High campaign activity, dense urban populations, and heavy traffic increase the likelihood of crowd surges, movement disruptions, opportunistic crime, and information incidents.

Northern Province (Kaputa) – SUBSTANTIAL

Kaputa remains the most politically sensitive constituency. The continued ECZ suspension of NRPUP campaigning, combined with President Hakainde Hichilema’s campaign visit, has reinforced opposition allegations of unequal enforcement. While no violence was recorded during the reporting period, any ECZ or High Court decision concerning Kaputa could rapidly trigger demonstrations or heightened political tensions.

Southern Province (Mazabuka and Magoye East) – MODERATE

Although security remained stable, unresolved investigations surrounding the Magoye East election-related fatality continue to sustain political grievances. Existing party mobilization networks could facilitate rapid escalation and should further incidents.

Copperbelt Province (Ndola) – MODERATE

Political competition remains active across the Copperbelt, particularly in Ndola, where disputes over campaign materials highlighted continuing friction between political actors. Urban political mobilization and frequent campaign events continue to increase operational demands on security services.

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[1] Politically sensitive constituencies: Kaputa (Northern Province), Magoye East (Southern Province), Matero (Lusaka Province), and Kalingalinga (Lusaka Province)

[2] National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity